Ranking The Five First Round Trades

The five trades that were made during the first round continue to dominate the conversation as fans gear up for the second day of the 2013 NFL Draft. The moves began with Miami jumping into the top 3 picks by making a swap with Oakland. The St. Louis Rams were next to climb the board, sending a package of picks to Buffalo to grab the 8th selection. Then it was the San Francisco 49ers turn to make a leap, snagging the Dallas Cowboys 18th pick for a pair of selections. A few picks later St. Louis made their second trade of the night, recouping some of what they lost earlier from the Atlanta Falcons who jumped to 22. And last, but certainly not least, the Minnesota Vikings capped the night by sending a package of picks to the New England Patriots to get back into the end of the first round. But who got the best value?

Keep in mind that these rankings do not take into consideration who the teams selected. They are an evaluation of the trades using the NFL Draft pick value chart, a system that has been used for more than a decade to place a value on draft picks.

The Best: Miami Dolphins send the 12th and 42nd selections to the Oakland Raiders for their 3rd overall pick.

1etd7o.Em.56Moving from the 12th pick all the way up to the 3rd overall selection should have cost the Miami Dolphins an arm and a leg, but they made it out relatively unscathed. In exchange for the 3rd selection the Oakland Raiders received Miami’s 12th pick and their 42nd pick, the higher of the Dolphins’ two second round selections. Value wise, Miami got the steal of the draft. The 3rd overall pick has an assessed value of 2200 points, while the Raiders haul is worth a combined 1680 points. Oakland undersold the pick.

Value says Oakland should have also received Miami’s other 2nd round selection (54), their fourth round pick (111), and both of the Dolphins’ 5th rounders (146 and 154), a package totaling 2171, which is just under the estimated value of the 3rd overall pick.

Second Best: San Francisco 49ers trading up to snag the Dallas Cowboys’ 18th selection.

This was an interesting trade. San Francisco needed a safety to replace Dashon Goldson. Dallas is also in the market for a safety and I would think that Jerry Jones has at least enough sense to know the 49ers are targeting secondary help if they move up. Why make this move? While I scratch my head trying to answer that question let’s get back to the value chart and see how the 49ers got the better end of the deal. San Francisco picked up the 18th overall selection, which as a value of 900 points. In return the Cowboys hauled off the 21st and 71st picks, a combined value of 820 points. Really the deal isn’t that bad. It’s in the ballpark but I can’t help feeling like Dallas should have also grabbed one of the 49ers’ sixth rounders too.

Atlanta-Falcons-logo-psd56737

Middle of the pack: Atlanta Falcons swapping picks with the St. Louis Rams to move up to 22nd.

This deal is also close on paper. The Falcons needed to make a jump to land the corner they coveted and the Rams wanted to trade down to recoup some of the picks they lost in an earlier trade with Buffalo, so it was a win-win trade. Value the trade slightly favored the Falcons. Atlanta received the 22nd overall pick, worth a value of 780 points and a 2015 7th rounder. In exchange, St. Louis picked up the Falcons’ 30th, 92nd, and 198th picks; worth a combined value of 765.2 points. It wasn’t a bad trade for the Rams at all, but they could have done better. I believe St. Louis should have also received the 133rd selection, the lower of Atlanta’s two 4th rounders in the deal.

Tied at the bottom: Buffalo Bills deal the 8th pick to St. Louis, Patriots haul in 4 picks from Minnesota at the end of the round.

I know my fellow Rams fans will begin lighting torches when they see this, but that is OK. Let me clarify here, both of these deals are essentially even value wise and do NOT take into account who was selected with the picks. I don’t consider either of them bad by any means. They are simply at the bottom because something had to be.

Now take a deep breath and put down the pitchforks.

Back to the values. The Rams picked up Buffalo’s 8th overall pick and moved up to 71st in the 3rd round, selections worth an estimated 1635 points. In return the Bills received the 16th, 46th, 78th, and 222nd selections; a package worth 1643 points. Value wise it is a fair deal for both sides. The hardest part for the Rams will be sitting through the entire 2nd round, likely watching the other top safety prospects come off the board. But aside from that it was a solid trade that allowed both sides to address major needs.

At the end of the night analysts were singing the high praises of the New England Patriots who hauled in four picks from Minnesota in exchange for the 29th overall pick. Value wise it slightly favors New England, but I consider it a fair trade. Minnesota picked up the 29th pick, worth an estimated 640 points. In exchange, the Patriots landed the 52nd, 83rd, 102nd, and 229th picks, a package worth 649 points. So value wise it is fair. However, I think that it was a steal for the Pats. They picked up a 2nd rounder, a 3rd round selection and a 4th round pick and will be able to draft additional skill players thanks to this trade.

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